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Latest ArticlesRussia's Islamist Terror Threat ReemergesMarch 2024 • The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune On March 22, Islamic militants opened fire on a concert hall in the Russian capital of Moscow, killing scores of concertgoers before setting the venue ablaze. Less than 24 hours later, the Islamic State terrorist group publicly took responsibility for the assault. The death toll currently stands at 137. While some reports link the attack to the Islamic State's regional branch in Central Asia (named "Islamic State – Khorasan Province") where the shooters are from, other analysts conclude that multiple branches of the Islamic State cooperated in the Moscow attack. Vladimir Putin has suggested that the assailants had links to Ukraine. But the Islamic State's likely "justifications" for the attack won't lie in Kyiv. Rather, the Islamic State would likely justify the attack through two causes in Russia: Russia's policies in the Middle East, and the alienation of its Muslim citizens and migrant Muslim populations living in Russia. The proximate cause for such an attack may have more to do with tactical considerations such as chances for success resulting from Russia's vulnerability.
What Moscow Truly Wants From Kyiv: Total SubmissionMarch 20, 2024 • The Hill These are difficult days for Ukraine. Two years into its war against Russia, Western support for Kyiv's fight against the Kremlin appears to be flagging. In Washington, billions of dollars in much-needed military aid have stalled in Congress. Europe has sought to fill the resulting funding gap, but officials in Brussels are quick to admit that the continent simply doesn't have the resources to sustain Ukraine's defense on its own. As a result, they warn, Ukraine could soon experience what amounts to a dramatic reversal of strategic fortune. It's no wonder, then, that more world leaders have begun telling Kyiv to sue for peace. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, for instance, has urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to acquiesce to peace talks under his government's sponsorship. And in a now-infamous interview recorded earlier this month, Pope Francis counseled Zelensky to surrender, saying that "the strongest is the one who sees the situation, thinks of the people, and has the courage of the white flag, and to negotiate." There's only one problem. Such calls presuppose that Ukraine is the intransigent party, that Russia is open to compromise and that the only thing required for meaningful peace is for Kyiv to come to the negotiating table. Nothing of the sort is true, however.
The War On Terror Is BackMarch 15, 2024 • The National Interest Within the Beltway, February and March tend to be busy months, when high-ranking military commanders and senior intelligence officials descend on Capitol Hill to update lawmakers on the assorted threats facing the United States. This year, however, interspersed with the usual briefings about Russia (reenergized by what it sees as flagging Western support for Ukraine) and China—with its persistent desire to dominate Taiwan—Members of Congress also heard a different and deeply unwelcome message. The conflict once called the "War on Terror" has well and truly returned.
Another Way Congress Can Help UkraineMarch 7, 2024 • The Washington Times Can America continue to support Ukraine? At present, the answer seems far from certain. For weeks, U.S. assistance to Kyiv has been tied up in Congress, a casualty of partisan politics and election-year maneuvering. Backers of continued aid still hope the logjam will be broken in the coming weeks. That, however, might not end up happening. While a fresh supplemental aid package has already passed the Senate, Speaker Mike Johnson has refused to bring it to a floor vote before the House of Representatives. And continued pressure from vocal members of the House Freedom Caucus, as well as opposition from former President (and presumptive Republican nominee) Donald Trump, may stop him from ever doing so. For Ukraine, the present gridlock is potentially disastrous. The coming half-year, Ukrainian officials have made clear, represents a "zone of crisis" – one in which shortfalls in ammunition and other vital materiel could pose a real threat to the viability of Kyiv's continued resistance to Russia's onslaught. As a practical matter, that means Western aid, even if it does eventually materialize, could do so too late should the tide of battle turn decisively in Moscow's favor. However, such a state of affairs isn't necessarily a foregone conclusion because the United States has other ways of assisting Ukraine.
It's Time To Let America's Iran Outreach Be All It Can BeMarch 5, 2024 • Newsweek What's the current state of America's engagement with the Iranian people? When the Trump administration came into office in early 2017, the answer to that question was decidedly negative. The U.S. government's dedicated public diplomacy agency, then known as the Broadcasting Board of Governors (and subsequently as the U.S. Agency for Global Media, or USAGM) was rife with problems, ranging from personnel irregularities to poor security practices. And the Voice of America's (VOA) Farsi service, beset by poor management, low morale, and instances of blatant political favoritism, ranked among the Agency's worst performing channels. That year, I chaired an in-depth study at the American Foreign Policy Council (AFPC), which documented major issues with both the form and substance of U.S. messaging to the Iranian people. Fast forward some seven years, and things appear to have changed for the better. Books by Ilan Berman |
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